How aware are we of the critical role that trucks play in our lives?
We tried to define for you what our lives will be like in a 10-day period when trucks will not work.
First, let’s take a look at Turkey and the transportation market.
2023 Turkish Transportation Market Outlook as 2023 Ends
Approximately 90% of daily transportation in Turkey continues to be done by road. No change is expected in the next 5-10 years. In 2022, an average of 450 thousand trucks carried FTL (full truck) cargo daily, while according to TIRPORT INSIGHTS data; we observe that the daily transportation has decreased to 390 thousand FTL as we reach the end of 2023. The transportation market contracted by up to 15% as a result of the negative economic developments in our country and the world.
There are around 550 thousand trucks with a tonnage of 16 tons or more carrying commercial cargo on the roads in Turkey. In 2023, a truck traveled an average of 468 km with an average load of 468 km, burning an average of 164 liters of diesel fuel in the process, with fuel costs alone exceeding 6 thousand TL. The average freight price reached 14 thousand TL. We have also witnessed that freight rates on some routes can vary by up to 50% depending on the truck-load correlation. Some trucks transported only for a little more than the return diesel fare in order to get back to their exit points quickly. Unfortunately, one of the 3 trucks you see on the road had to return empty.
In Europe, fuel cost is around 25% of freight, while in Turkey it is around 50%. If a truck cannot take a load on its return, it automatically incurs a loss. Considering that 85% of the trucks on the road are privately owned, the bread is really in the lion’s mouth. For truckers, business continuity is under threat. 2024 will not be easy. For individual truck owners and logistics companies, being able to organize return freight will become vital.
In 10 Days
What to Expect!
Distribution of daily milk and bread becomes difficult, cargo deliveries cannot take place, and daily deliveries of grocery products cannot be made.
Garbage and waste collection trucks will also stop working, so garbage collection activities in cities will stop. Daily garbage collection becomes impossible.
Daily supplies of grocery stores come to a standstill. Fuel stations start to run out of fuel stocks. When the public hears about the supply shortages, there is a rush to the markets and fuel stations for stocks. There are restrictions at fuel stations and queues appear in some places.
Drinkable packaged water, diapers, formula, etc. access to critical products becomes very difficult, and gaps on the shelves in grocery stores are conspicuous. Meat and dairy factories are forced to stop production. Some fuel stations begin to close due to out of stocks and the inability to supply new fuel. Grocery stores run out of daily products.
All construction activities come to a standstill as excavation and concrete mixers stop working. In cities, garbage cannot be collected, so garbage heaps form on the streets. Infectious diseases start to appear. Pungent garbage odors become unpleasant in the streets.
The fuel supply shortage has started to cause problems in public transportation and service vehicles. People have difficulties and disruptions on their way to school and work. The shelves in the markets begin to empty to a great extent. Paper and cleaning products are in short supply. Crops in fields/gardens cannot be harvested. Fresh food in the markets starts to be wasted where they are. Hygiene problems arise in hospitals. There is a shortage of medicines and medical supplies. Disruptions in services in hospitals are noticeable.
Access to packaged drinking water becomes very difficult, hotel/restaurant etc. places face closure due to food supply and hygiene problems, education cannot continue, and health services in hospitals are seriously disrupted. Industrial production starts to suffer. It may be difficult to maintain order on the streets.
There is nothing left on the shelves of grocery stores except non-food products. Packaged water is not available. Water factories are forced to stop production due to lack of deliveries. In cities, buses and minibuses running on fossil fuels are towed to garages. Public transportation is largely disrupted except for the subways. Construction activities come to a standstill across the country. Heavy industries such as iron and steel and main industries such as automotive start planning to suspend production. Mass productions generally suffer.
Police forces are insufficient, and the army forces are called in to control the looting and riots in the cities. People try to go to rural areas. Banks are unable to perform their functions due to security risks, branches are closed because they are not safe. Those in the countryside quickly leave the cities and try to return to their villages. Fuel goes on the black market. Access to food and packaged water becomes very limited. Production stops for most of the country. Everyone’s only concern is survival.
Garbage and mountains of garbage in cities are now a major threat to daily life. Construction equipment is used to remove garbage from living spaces, and law enforcement forces are used to remove garbage from living spaces.
Grocery stores across the country shut down, bakeries largely halted production as they did not have enough flour and yeast stocks. Pasta and other food production factories are forced to completely stop production as products such as flour, fruit and tomatoes cannot be supplied. Public order becomes the number one agenda of the country.
A 24/7 mobilization process, under the auspices of the army, is initiated so that the people can be fed with the limited means and resources at the disposal of state institutions. Controlled production and distribution begins with the organization of the state. The Army’s continental cargo stocks begin to be used. Ration card-based food and hygiene products are delivered to families in the presence of security forces. Migration from cities to villages accelerates.
The country is now under martial law and mobilization. Access to food and essential products for life becomes completely controlled. No vehicle can be refueled unless it is approved by the authorities. Public transportation ceased and essential services such as health care began to be provided under very difficult conditions under the auspices of the army.
The country, which entered intensive care within 10 days when the trucks shut down, can return to normalcy in 3 months at the earliest when the trucks start running again.
If a product is delivered to your doorstep, if you buy a product at the market, if you go to the doctor and receive a treatment, a “truck” is bringing it to you…
This article was written by Dr. Akın Arslan, Founder of TIRPORT.